An Israeli Assessment: Conventional Military Threats Have Diminished
Speaking on background this week, a senior Israeli official said that the threat of conventional war against Israel had fallen sharply due to instability in the Arab world.
The official predicted that the 22 members of the Arab League would split into 28 to 30 countries during the next five years as the so-called Arab Spring turns out to be an “Islamist winter.” Those who expected a democratic resurgence after the Arab revolts of 2011, he argued, “have no understanding of history and no understanding of the social circumstances of Arab countries. It isn’t like Eastern Europe after the fall of Communism. Eastern Europe had the experience of democracy between the wars, and it also had a great culture. Above all, it didn’t have a political religion dedicated to conquest.”
What the official characterized as “the implosion of the Arab world” would make it much harder for Arab countries to mount a conventional threat against the Jewish state, he said. “Between the alternative of having our enemies divided or united, we prefer to have them divided,” he added. “The states put together after World War I by Mr. Sykes and Mr. Picot won’t hold together. We are finding out that Arab countries aren’t really countries in the first place. Libya turns out to be not a country, but a collection of 140 tribes. And we hardly need talk about what is happening in Syria.”
He added, “The clout of the Arab League is falling, and Arab oil is becoming less important.” After the 1967 war, he observed, the Arabs consoled themselves for their defeat by asserting that time was on their side. “Now, no-one can say that time is on the side of the Arabs. They are in danger of disintegration. Time is on nobody’s side. Time is on the side of whoever prepares best for the future.”
Asked whether the ascendancy of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and other Arab countries might foster a supranational strain of radicalism in the Arab world, the official dismissed the scenario as extremely unlikely. “The Arabs are too divided among themselves for a unified Islamist movement to emerge. First, there is the Sunni-Shia split which probably will never be resolved. And within the Sunna, there are deep splits. The Muslim Brotherhood is at odds with the Salafists, for example; the Saudis are Salafist, and that is why the Saudis and the Egyptians are walking on eggshells when they talk to each other.”
As Jerusalem views the world, the official explained, two contradictory trends predominate. One is towards economic integration, and the other is toward geopolitical disintegration. “All through the Arab world the dialogue among intellectuals is about the dysfunction of their countries,” he said. The Arab world may be the most extreme example, he added, but it is not the only one: “Look at Scotland, or Catalonia. Who would have thought fifty years ago that the Scots might be voting on independence from England?”
Iran’s nuclear program remains the great danger, and April will be a pivotal month, the official added, both because of the rate of accumulation of highly enriched uranium, and because the campaign for Iran’s June presidential election will begin in that month. If Iran wants to avoid war, its political leaders will have to signal a change in policy to their own people in the lead-up to the elections.
Israel’s response to these trends is two-fold, the official said.
“The world has learned nothing two generations after the Holocaust,” citing the West’s failure to intervene to stop genocide in Rwanda and its belated response to massacres in southern Sudan. “That is why no-one can take away the right of the Jewish people to defend itself.”
Globalization, though, opens numerous opportunities for the Jewish state to distinguish itself through technology, business, and science. The world needs new energy technologies, more efficient agriculture, better water management, cost-effective medical diagnostics, and a range of other technologies where Israel excels. Israel aspires to a new image as the source of beneficial technologies and scientific achievements that improve the lives of people around the world.
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Signs of an approaching full-scale war increased Friday afternoon, Nov. 16. The IDF obtained government approval to call up reserves in addition to the 30,000 already approved. Hospitals across the country were placed on emergency footing. The security cabinet meets urgently after 550 Palestinian rockets fired in three days. Jerusalem and Tel Aviv were targeted Friday by Hamas which reported firing two “homemade M-75” missiles each at Israel’s capital and commercial hub. There were no casualties in either town.
- First Gaza missiles hit Tel Aviv
- Egypt recalls envoy. Iron Dome scores 17 rockets
- Israeli air strike kills Hamas military chief Ahmed Jabari
- Iran’s new interceptor vs US-Israeli drill
- Assad tests IDF responses on Golan and Gaza
- Israel fires missile into Syria as Gaza front escalates
- Iran attacks US drone for Khartoum
- Obama aims for December nuclear talks with Iran
- Last Israel warning to Damascus
DEBKAfile Special Report
The first three Palestinian missiles reached the Tel Aviv conurbation, Gush Dan, Thursday night, Nov. 15. shortly after a long-range missile exploded in Rishon Lezion southeast of Tel Aviv and sirens sounded in outlying towns of Holon, Ness Ziona, Gan Raveh and Beer Yacov. None report casualties ordamage. Defense Minister Ehud Barak has ordered 30,000 army reservists drafted. The IDF spokesmen earlier reported units of the elite paratroop and Givati Brigades were mustering outside the Gaza Strip.
DEBKAfile Special Report
The Palestinians fired 50 rockets from Gaza Wednesday night, Nov. 14 – of which Iron Dome intercepted 17 – after an Israeli air assault killed the Hamas military chief Ahmed Jabari and destroyed dozens of missile sites. The rockets were fired at Beersheba, Ashdod and Eshkol, causing no casualties. Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi did not issue a statement on the Israeli operation, but recalled his ambassador from Tel Aviv and said Cairo would ask the UNSecurity Council to stop “Israeli aggression.”
DEBKAfile Special Report
Ahmed Jabari, commander of Hamas’s military arm, Ezz e-din al-Qassam, was killed in a targeted Israeli air attack in Gaza City Wednesday. Jabari, 52, a key figure in the radical Palestinian Hamas movement, was caught driving in a black Mercedes in Gaza City. Israel’s counter-terror operation Pillar of Cloud continues after Hamas declared: We are at war.DEBKAfile’s military sources report that southern Israeli was placed on high alert. First rockets hit Ashkelon and Eshkol.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report
Iran’s air defense chief Gen. Farzad Esmaili boasted Tuesday, Nov. 12, that the ongoing military exercise was “a strong slap to those countries that threaten [us].” DEBKAfile: Tehran’s six-day air defense drill is its answer to the joint US-Israeli maneuver for practicing defenses against an Iranian or Syrian ballistic missile attack on Israel. Patriot anti-missile launches from Palmachim Monday tested US-Israel ability to lock onto Iranian cruise missiles coming from the Mediterranean aboard Iranian military or civilian vessels or Hizballah speedboats.
DEBKAfile Special Report
Another shell landed near an Israeli position on the Golan Monday, Nov. 12, less than 24 hours after Damascus promised to silence the mortar battery responsible for “stray shells.” The promise came after Israel fired a Tamuz guided missile into Syria as a warning shot. Monday, Israeli tank fire knocked out the Syrian mortar battery. DEBKAfile: Bashar Assad is provoking the Netanyahu government in the light of its restraint against heavy Palestinian missile fire from Gaza.
DEBKAfile Special Report
Israel’s deteriorating security situation has erupted simultaneously on two fronts. Sunday, Nov. 11, the IDF fired a Tamuz precision guided missile at a Syrian mortar position as a warning after a stray mortar hit an Israel Golan defense post. It was the fourth incident in 10 days. On the Gaza front, the Palestinians shot Grad missiles at Beersheba – one was intercepted by Iron Dome – after shooting 60 missiles in less than 24 hours. They injured four Israeli soldiers Saturday, four civilians Sunday – apparent victims of Katyushas supplied by Hizballah.
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DEBKAfile Exclusive Report
Iranian Defense Minister Brig. Gen. Ahmad Vahidi confirmed Nov. 9 that two Iranian SU-25 jet fighters had fired at an unarmed US MQ-Predator drone over the Persian Gulf a week earlier. DEBKAfile: In September, Tehran twice warned that US targets would be at risk if Israel struck Iranian interests. After an Iranian missile factory was bombed in Khartoum, Iran and Sudan pointed the finger at Israel. In consequence, on Nov. 1, Iranian fighters shot at – and missed – the US drone.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report
US President Barack Obama aims to launch direct, fast-track nuclear talks with Tehran in December with a three month deadline for their conclusion,DEBKAfile reports. His advisers warn him that Iran’s campaign for its June 14 presidential election kicks off in March and Tehran cannot be expected to commit to a resolution of their nuclear controversy by then. Iranian strategists would prefer to hold off nuclear diplomacy for eight months until after their election “just as Tehran waited for the US vote.”
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report
Israel has given Damascus a final warning that a military response would be forthcoming if its fighter aircraft infringed the airspace over the Golan demilitarized zones,DEBKAfile reports. The warning, further ratcheting up border tension, was relayed through the UN Disengagement Observer Force in an effort to contain any spillover of the Syrian civil war across Israel’s border. It applied to any ordnance flying across the border and the entry of Syrian forces to the Golan demilitarized zones.
DEBKA-Net-Weekly #552
Iran’s Saeed Jalili visited Beirut and Damascus for military coordination with Bashar Assad and Hassan Nasrallah on their respective roles in retaliating for a potential US/Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear sites and the regime in Damascus being squeezed into a danger zone. They decided that in either case, the mutual Iranian-Syrian defense pact would be invoked.
DEBKA-Net-Weekly #551
Iran’s fast-advancing mega-fortification for its nuclear sites gives Israel and its current military capabilities no more than three months for a disruptive – not destructrive – attack on its nuclear program with conventional weapons. A delay will make a tactical nuclear strike the only feasible option. That is the dilemma US President Barack Obama must resolve.
DEBKA-Net-Weekly #551
The US has quietly crafted a new Kurdish state in northern Syria. It is linked to the self-governing Kurdish republic of Iraq and defers to its rulers. Turkey and Iraq feel betrayed by Barack Obama, fearing their own Kurdish minorities like Iran’s Kurds will be swallowed up by the long dreamed-of expanding Kurdish entity.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report
The fall of Damascus may be drawn-out, bloody and excruciating. It will also have wide regional repercussions, as DEBKAfileshows in this exclusive video, because neither the Assad regime nor Iran will take it lying down.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report
The Saudis, not invited to join negotiations either on Syria or Iran, have gone ahead with their own plans for beating Iran to the nuclear draw.
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report
DEBKAfile Exclusive Report
For the first time, a thread links the triple rocket attack on the Israeli town of Sderot, with the two terrorist cells captured in Riyadh and Jeddah, Saudi Arabia – Sunday, Aug. 26, DEBKAfilereports. Both were conceived by Al Qaeda of the Arabian Peninsula. AQAP has ordered its Sinai cells and Egyptian and Palestinian offshoots to step up their attacks and hold Israeli towns, Eilat and Sderot, hostage against pursuit. Fears that chemicals held by the Saudi cell may have reached Sinai.
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